Credit Investment Memorandum · April 3, 2026
City of Ladysmith, Wisconsin
$3,235,000 General Obligation Promissory Notes, Series 2026A
Par Amount
$3,235,000
Final Maturity
March 1, 2046
Rated
S&P AA / Stable
Insured (Assured Guaranty) · Underlying: NOT RATED
Sector
General Obligation
Unlimited Tax Pledge · Wisconsin
Delivery Date
April 13, 2026
Tax Status
Fed Tax-Exempt
Not AMT · Wisconsin taxable · Bank-qualified
Use of Proceeds
Street & Water
$3,152,250 to Construction Fund
Recommendation
MONITOR
Sound structure · Operational surveillance required
MONITOR
The constitutional unlimited tax levy provides structural invulnerability to bond payment default; however, persistent audit material weaknesses, sewer enterprise fund deterioration, anticipated additional debt issuance, and unfavorable demographic trends collectively warrant active surveillance of the General Fund's operating trajectory.
01

Executive Summary

The City of Ladysmith, Wisconsin (population approximately 3,150), a municipal corporation in Rusk County in the state's northern region, is issuing $3,235,000 of General Obligation Promissory Notes, Series 2026A, dated April 13, 2026, with proceeds directed toward street and water treatment plant improvements. The Notes are secured by the City's pledge of its full faith, credit, and resources, together with a direct, annual, irrepealable levy on all taxable property in the City without limitation as to rate or amount — a constitutional protection that renders the GO debt service mechanism structurally immune to the revenue volatility and coverage covenants that drive credit stress in revenue-backed municipal sectors.

This memorandum recommends a MONITOR designation rather than an outright BUY, reflecting the bond's structural strength against three operational credit concerns that merit ongoing observation:

⚑ Flag 1

Repeat material weaknesses in three consecutive audit findings (segregation of duties, material audit adjustments required, and reliance on auditor for GAAP statement preparation).

⚑ Flag 2

A Sewer enterprise fund carrying a ($978,081) unrestricted net position deficit with $1,350,684 in outstanding interfund loans from the General Fund.

⚑ Flag 3

Continuing disclosure non-compliance in three of the past five years — patterns inconsistent with the highest standards of municipal governance for a long-dated, 20-year obligation.

02

Bond & Security Description

Security Pledge
"The full faith, credit and resources of the City will be irrevocably pledged for the prompt payment of the principal and interest on the Notes, and for that purpose there is hereby levied on all taxable property of the City a direct, annual, irrepealable tax in amounts sufficient to pay such principal and interest as they respectively mature, which tax shall be without limitation as to rate or amount." Award Resolution, March 23, 2026 · Official Statement, p.3

This pledge invokes Article VIII, Section 3 of the Wisconsin Constitution, which mandates that GO debt service be levied and collected regardless of any other fiscal constraint. Wisconsin Statutes §66.0602 explicitly exempts GO debt service for notes authorized after July 1, 2005 — which includes Series 2026A — from the statutory property tax levy limits applicable to other municipal spending. No debt service reserve fund is provided.

Structure & Flow of Funds
ItemAmount
Par Amount$3,235,000
Original Issue Premium$112,438
Total Proceeds$3,347,438
Uses of Proceeds
Construction Fund (street & water improvements)$3,152,250
Costs of Issuance$49,750
Underwriter Expenses$42,686
AG Insurance Premium$15,630
Capitalized Interest$33,000
Premium to Debt Service Fund$54,123

The Notes amortize through serial maturities from 2027 through 2036, with five term bond tranches maturing in 2038, 2040, 2042, 2044, and 2046, subject to mandatory annual sinking fund redemptions. Term bonds represent approximately 61.7% of total par — a back-loaded structure that increases average life and concentrates refinancing exposure at the long end. Optional redemption is available on September 1, 2034, at par, for maturities of September 1, 2035 and later. Maximum Annual Debt Service (MADS) is $250,650, occurring in 2030. [Calculated from OS, pp.13–14 debt service schedule.] The Paying Agent is Bond Trust Services Corporation, an affiliate of Ehlers and Associates, the City's Municipal Advisor — a standard Wisconsin disclosure representing a related-party arrangement.

Key Structural Features & Flags
⚑ No Debt Service Reserve Fund

No DSRF is provided. For an unrated underlying credit with a 20-year final maturity and back-loaded amortization, the absence of a DSRF removes a meaningful structural buffer. The risk is substantially mitigated by the unlimited levy pledge, but the structural gap is worth noting for investors who use DSRF presence as a credit screen.

⚑ Back-Loaded Amortization (~61.7% Term Bonds)

Term bonds maturing through 2046 lengthen duration, increase interest cost, and concentrate the City's GO debt burden in later years when the demographic and fiscal trajectory of a declining-population community is more uncertain.

Wisconsin County Settlement Guarantee: Rusk County guarantees 100% settlement of the City's levy to the City on or before August 20 of each collection year under Wisconsin Statutes §74.23, insulating the City from individual taxpayer delinquency risk. [OS, pp.19–20]

03

Debt Covenant Summary

The Series 2026A Notes carry no traditional contractual financial covenants — no debt service coverage ratio, no liquidity ratio, no rate covenant, and no fund balance floor. The security structure is constitutional, not contractual. Analytically equivalent GO constraints and current status are presented below.

ConstraintThresholdCurrent LevelHeadroomAssessment
Statutory GO Debt Limit (5% of EV) $13,360,715 $9,870,712 outstanding $3,490,003 Comfortable
Unlimited Property Tax Levy (constitutional) None — irrepealable 100% collection; 5-year record Not applicable Structural protection
GF Unassigned Balance (GFOA benchmark: 16.7% of exp.) $730,851 $1,352,569 (30.9%) $621,718 above benchmark Comfortable
GO Debt Service / Total GF Levy No covenant MADS = 16.9% of FY2025 levy Unlimited levy backstop Not applicable

The City's current compliance with all GO statutory requirements is strong. The $3,490,003 of unused statutory debt limit accommodates the anticipated SRF-related additional GO borrowing disclosed in the OS [OS, p.3], although at a modeled 20% equalized value decline, only $817,860 of capacity would remain — a meaningful constraint on future issuance flexibility if the economy deteriorates materially before additional borrowing occurs.

04

Structural Risk Assessment

The security structure of the Series 2026A Notes is, at its core, sound — grounded in a constitutional obligation with no precedent for failure in Wisconsin's history of municipal finance. The unlimited property tax levy pledge, the Rusk County 100% settlement guarantee, and the statutory exemption of GO debt service from levy limits collectively create a triple-layer structural protection that distinguishes Wisconsin GO bonds from GO bonds in states without comparable mechanisms.

Five structural features warrant investor attention:

#FeatureNatureSignificance
1 No DSRF Structural gap Absent on 20-year unrated underlying credit with back-loaded amortization; mitigated by unlimited levy
2 Back-loaded amortization (61.7% term bonds) Duration / concentration risk Extends duration; concentrates exposure in later years of demographic decline
3 Anticipated additional SRF GO borrowing (within 12 months) Future leverage increase Will reduce unused debt limit headroom; additional debt service not yet modeled [OS, p.3]
4 Related-party Paying Agent (Bond Trust Services / Ehlers) Standard WI disclosure Not a material concern; standard Wisconsin market practice; fully disclosed
5 Continuing disclosure non-compliance (3 of 5 years) Investor surveillance risk Limits ongoing monitoring on a 20-year obligation without DSRF; repeat pattern vs. isolated failure [OS, p.4]

Overall structural conclusion: The protections are sound for the Wisconsin GO sector, but the combination of no DSRF, back-loaded amortization, anticipated additional debt, and weak disclosure compliance collectively justify a MONITOR designation rather than an unconditional BUY.

05

Issuer Background

The City of Ladysmith was incorporated in 1905 and serves as the county seat of Rusk County in north-central Wisconsin. The City operates under a Mayor-Council form of government, with Mayor Robert Grotzinger (re-elected unopposed in April 2024; April 2026 election outcome is unconfirmed as of the report date) and City Administrator Alan Christianson, a Ladysmith native. [OS, p.28; background research.] The City provides the full range of municipal services: public safety, streets, utilities (water and sewer), parks, and general administration. The water utility is regulated by the Wisconsin Public Service Commission (PSC); sewer rates are set unilaterally by the City Council.

The most significant recent economic development affecting the City's credit is the March 2025 announcement by Henry Repeating Arms — a top-five U.S. long gun manufacturer — of its complete Wisconsin manufacturing consolidation to Ladysmith. Henry is acquiring three industrial facilities totaling over $4.25 million in real property (1100 Barnett Rd. at $1.75M and 1506 Barnett Rd. at $2.5M, in addition to its existing 800 Gustafson Rd. facility), with a commitment to 175 or more City-based full-time employees. [henryusa.com, March 2025.] Critically, these facilities were previously owned by the City and thus tax-exempt; their acquisition by Henry converts them to taxable property, adding directly to the equalized value base supporting the City's unlimited GO levy. Wisconsin Act 12 (2023) also permanently restructured shared revenue distributions, yielding an approximately 202% increase in Ladysmith's allocation — approximately $1,599,600 in 2025 and a projected $1,646,000 in 2026, indexed to state sales tax collections. [wisctowns.com, Act 12 analysis.]

06

Tax Base & Fiscal Analysis

Equalized Value Trend, 2021–2025
$169.7M
2021
$195.5M
2022
$227.6M
2023
$253.3M
2024
$267.2M
2025
Metric20212022202320242025
Equalized Value$169,700,000$195,500,000$227,600,000$253,300,000$267,214,300
YoY Change+15.2%+16.4%+11.3%+5.5%
Statutory Debt Cap (5%)$8,485,000$9,775,000$11,380,000$12,665,000$13,360,715
[Source: OS, p.18 EV table. 2021–2024 approximate values interpolated from OS 5-year trend disclosure.]
Major Employers
EmployerSectorEmployees
Weather Shield ManufacturingManufacturing327
Rockwell AutomationManufacturing / Technology260
Rusk CountyGovernment225
Marshfield Medical CenterHealthcare175
WalmartRetail175
School District of LadysmithEducation175
Henry Repeating Arms (announced 2025)Manufacturing175+
Biorigin PaperManufacturing85
[Source: OS, p.29. Henry Repeating Arms commitment announced March 2025; henryusa.com.]

The City's equalized value has grown 57.5% over the five-year period 2021–2025. Annual growth decelerated from approximately 16% in the 2022–2023 period to 5.5% in 2024–2025, consistent with normalization of Wisconsin property values from pandemic-era highs. Tax collection performance has been perfect: the City has maintained a 100% collection rate for five consecutive years, supported by the Rusk County statutory settlement guarantee under Wis. Stat. §74.23. [OS, p.20.] The top 10 taxpayers represent 21.94% of total EV, with the largest single taxpayer (Ladysmith Campus LLC) at 5.01%. [OS, p.19.]

07

Competitive Landscape

For a general obligation bond, the competitive landscape is most meaningfully assessed in terms of the competitiveness of the tax base — whether property owners and employers have viable alternatives to location within the City. Industrial and commercial property owners in Ladysmith face limited short-run alternatives given the investment already embedded in Rusk County's infrastructure, workforce, and the specific attractiveness demonstrated by Henry Repeating Arms' consolidation decision. Henry's $4.25M+ facility acquisition and multi-year employment commitment signals meaningful anchor-tenant stability in the industrial base.

The more relevant competitive dynamic for a GO tax base is population retention. Ladysmith competes for residents against other northern Wisconsin communities and against broader migration patterns that have steadily moved population away from rural Wisconsin. The City's 18.9% population decline since 2000 reflects this competitive pressure. Residential property represents 61% of EV; sustained population outflow could create long-term downward pressure on residential values, partially offsetting commercial and industrial base gains. This dynamic is long-running and secular, not cyclical — it does not impair the current GO levy but represents a structural constraint on EV growth over the life of the 2046 Notes.

08

Financial Analysis

GF Operating Margin (FY2024)
11.8%
FY2023: 4.3% · FY2022: 10.0% · Benchmark: >5%
GF Unassigned Balance / Expenditures
30.9%
GFOA minimum: 16.7% · $1,352,569 outstanding
Days Cash on Hand (Dec 31, 2024)
23.7 days
⚑ Below 60-day benchmark · Seasonal low; Mar 2026 cash: $4.4M
GO Debt / Equalized Value
3.69%
Adequate (strong <2%; concerning >5%)
MADS as % of GF Revenues
5.05%
$250,650 MADS · Constitutionally protected levy
Sewer Unrestricted Net Position
($978,081)
⚑ Negative · $1,350,684 interfund loan from GF
Three-Year General Fund Summary
MetricFY2024FY2023FY2022Benchmark / Note
General Fund — Modified Accrual
Total Revenues$4,963,846$4,753,978$4,594,941
Total Expenditures$4,377,549$4,547,578$4,135,764
Annual Operating Surplus$586,297$206,400$459,177Positive all 3 years
Operating Margin11.8%4.3%10.0%>5% adequate
Unassigned Fund Balance$1,352,569$1,024,568 est.GFOA min: 16.7% ✓
Fund Balance as % of Expenditures30.9%~22.5%30.9% vs. 16.7% min
Days Cash on Hand (Dec 31)23.7 days⚑ Below 60-day benchmark
March 2026 Cash Position$4,417,001Seasonally elevated
Fund Balance as % of Revenues56.5%>15% adequate ✓
Debt Metrics
Total GO Debt Outstanding$9,870,712Includes Series 2026A
GO Debt / Equalized Value3.69%Strong <2%; Adequate 2–5%
Per Capita GO Debt$3,077.86Per 3,207 population (2020 Census)
Series 2026A MADS$250,650Occurs in 2030
MADS as % of GF Revenues5.05%Manageable
Revenue Bonds Outstanding$10,105,849Separate enterprise lien
Enterprise Funds (FY2024)
Water: Operating Revenues$1,434,087PSC-regulated
Water: Operating Income$328,578Positive
Water: EBITDA$734,223
Sewer: Operating Revenues$885,450$882,000 est.$820,000 est.
Sewer: Operating Loss($87,869)($106,181)($139,466)⚑ Improving but persistent deficit
Sewer: Unrestricted Net Position($978,081)⚑ Fund insolvent on standalone basis
Sewer-to-GF Interfund Loan$1,350,684⚑ Owed to General Fund
[Sources: OS pp.27–31; Appendix A (FY2024 Audit, CliftonLarsonAllen LLP). All figures unaudited where labeled est.]
Financial Narrative

Income Statement Trajectory. The City's General Fund has delivered positive operating results in each of the three years for which data are available, with revenues growing from $4,594,941 in FY2022 to $4,963,846 in FY2024, a cumulative increase of 8.0%. [Appendix A.] The FY2023 result was the weakest — a $206,400 surplus on a 4.3% margin — driven by a 9.9% expenditure increase against only 3.5% revenue growth. The FY2024 rebound to an 11.8% margin is encouraging but does not yet represent a confirmed trend reversal. The government-wide FY2024 results include $5,403,104 in capital grants — a non-recurring item ($1,145,219 in FY2023) — that inflates the headline numbers. On a normalized basis, the government-wide governmental activities show an estimated net position decline of approximately ($1,166,799). [Appendix A; analyst normalization.]

Balance Sheet Strength. The unassigned General Fund balance of $1,352,569 — representing 30.9% of expenditures — is a genuine credit strength, sitting approximately 85% above the GFOA minimum of $730,851. [Appendix A.] However, ⚑ DAYS CASH the December 31, 2024 GF cash of $284,788 implies only 23.7 days cash on hand — well below the 60-day benchmark. The seasonally elevated March 2026 cash position of $4,417,001 [OS, p.25] confirms this is not a chronic issue, but mid-year cash management warrants monitoring.

Key Financial Risk. The single most concerning financial metric is the Sewer enterprise fund: a ($978,081) unrestricted net position deficit, three consecutive years of operating losses, and $1,350,684 in outstanding cash-basis loans from the General Fund. [Appendix A.] The City sets sewer rates without PSC oversight, subject to the political constraints of serving a low-income population where median household income is $41,719 — only 53.9% of the Wisconsin median. If sewer operating performance does not improve sufficiently, continued GF subsidy would erode the General Fund cushion that serves as the primary operational protection.

⚑ Audit & Governance — Repeat Material Weaknesses

The FY2024 audit by CliftonLarsonAllen LLP identified three material weaknesses, all repeat findings from FY2023 (second consecutive year): (1) segregation of duties insufficient for a municipality of Ladysmith's size; (2) material audit adjustments required by the auditor; and (3) reliance on the audit firm for the preparation of GAAP financial statements. [Appendix A, pp.150–152.] For an investor in a 20-year obligation with no DSRF, the absence of reliable internal controls limits confidence in self-reported financial information between audit cycles — particularly given the concurrent continuing disclosure non-compliance record.

09

Demographic & Economic Context

IndicatorCity of LadysmithWisconsinAssessment
Population (2020 Census)3,2165,893,718
Population Decline Since 2000−18.9%+8.4%⚑ Chronic outmigration
Estimated Population (2026)~3,150Continuing decline ~0.57%/yr
Median Age49.5 years40.1 years⚑ Significantly older; limits organic HH formation
Median Household Income$41,719$77,485⚑ 53.9% of state median
Poverty Rate~18.97%10.6%⚑ Nearly double state rate
Per Capita Income$32,43574.8% of Wisconsin
Rusk County Unemployment4.0–4.5% (2024–2025)~3.0–3.5%⚑ Consistently 50–150bps above state
Top 10 Taxpayers / Total EV21.94%Moderate concentration
Largest Single Taxpayer (Ladysmith Campus LLC)5.01% of EV
[Sources: 2024 ACS; OS, pp.28–29; BLS LAUS, December 2025.]

These demographic conditions have direct implications for the GO credit. In the near term, they constrain GF revenue growth — declining population limits the residential property value appreciation that would otherwise expand the levy base. The high poverty rate and below-average income create meaningful rate affordability pressure for any future sewer rate increases needed to address the enterprise fund's persistent operating deficit. In the medium term, the Henry Repeating Arms consolidation meaningfully offsets these pressures by adding taxable industrial property and 175+ jobs. The question for a 20-year investor is whether job creation from Henry and any follow-on economic development can structurally reverse the population decline — a question that current data cannot answer but that investors should revisit in each annual continuing disclosure cycle.

10

Market & Macro Environment

As of March 18, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds target rate at 3.50–3.75% for the second consecutive meeting; the U.S. Treasury yield curve is positively sloped, with the 2-year note at 3.88% and the 10-year note at 4.31% as of April 2, 2026 — a 2s/10s spread of +43 basis points. [Federal Reserve press release, March 18, 2026; Federal Reserve H.15 / Slickcharts / Treasury.gov, April 2, 2026.]

Rate Environment
Rate / SpreadLevelSource & Date
Fed Funds Target Range3.50–3.75%Federal Reserve, March 18, 2026
FOMC Dot Plot Median — End 20263.4%Powell press conference, March 18, 2026
CME FedWatch — April 28–29 Meeting (Hold)~87–89%CME FedWatch / Fox Business, March 18–19, 2026
CME FedWatch — December 2026 (Unchanged)51.3%CME FedWatch / Fox Business, March 18–19, 2026
2-Year Treasury3.88%Slickcharts / Treasury.gov, April 2, 2026
5-Year Treasury4.06%Slickcharts / Treasury.gov, April 2, 2026
10-Year Treasury4.31%Federal Reserve H.15, April 2, 2026
30-Year Treasury4.88%ETF Trends / CNBC, April 2, 2026
2s/10s Spread+43 bpsDerived (positively sloped)
10-Year TIPS Real Yield~1.50%tipswatch.com / Treasury, March 27, 2026 (approximate)
Municipal Market Conditions
MaturityAAA MMDTreasuryMuni/Tsy RatioSource & Date
10-Year~3.09%4.31%~72%Bloomberg BVAL / Raymond James, March 26–30, 2026
30-Year~4.09–4.25%4.88%~84–87%Raymond James / AB, March 26–27, 2026 (range — precise figure unavailable)
Historical 10-year muni/Treasury ratio average: ~85–90%. Current 10-year ratio of ~72% is below historical norms. 20-year AAA MMD was not retrievable in precise form; Bloomberg BVAL / Refinitiv MMD require subscription access.
Tax BracketAAA MMD (10-yr)Tax-Equivalent YieldFormula
24%3.09%4.07%3.09% ÷ (1 − 0.24) = 3.09% ÷ 0.76
32%3.09%4.54%3.09% ÷ (1 − 0.32) = 3.09% ÷ 0.68
37%3.09%4.90%3.09% ÷ (1 − 0.37) = 3.09% ÷ 0.63
Municipal fund flows: $1.8 billion inflow in most recent week; 17 consecutive weeks of inflows as of late March 2026. [Lipper / AllianceBernstein Muniland, week of approximately March 23–29, 2026.]
Macroeconomic Indicators
IndicatorCurrentPrior PeriodTrendSourceDate
Inflation
CPI Headline (YoY)2.4%2.4% (Jan)BLSFebruary 2026
CPI Core (YoY)2.5%~2.5% (Jan)BLSFebruary 2026
PCE Headline (YoY) [Fed preferred]2.8%2.7–2.8% (Nov–Dec 25)BEAJanuary 2026
PCE Core (YoY)3.1%2.8% (Nov–Dec 25)BEA / Dallas FedJanuary 2026
Labor Market
Unemployment Rate (U-3)4.4%4.3% (Jan)BLSFebruary 2026
Nonfarm Payrolls (monthly change)−92,000+126,000 (Jan)BLSFebruary 2026
Growth
Real GDP Growth (Q4 2025, SAAR)+1.4%+4.4% (Q3 2025)BEA advance estimateFeb 20, 2026
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1 2026)+1.6%+1.9% (Apr 1)Atlanta Fed GDPNowApril 2, 2026
Leading Indicators
ISM Manufacturing PMI52.752.4 (Feb)ISMMarch 2026 (Apr 1 release)
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid78.370.5 (Feb)↑↑ISMMarch 2026 (highest since Jun 2022)
ISM Services PMI56.153.8 (Jan)ISMFebruary 2026 (March not yet released)
Conference Board LEI (monthly change)−0.1%−0.2% (Dec 2025)Conference BoardJanuary 2026
Conference Board LEI (6-month trend)−1.3%Prior 6-mo: −2.6%Conference BoardJuly 2025 – January 2026
Bond-Specific Market Context

The Series 2026A Notes are fixed-rate obligations priced on April 13, 2026, locking in their coupon structure for the duration of the 20-year term regardless of subsequent rate movements. The FOMC's March 2026 statement indicated the Committee "will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" before adjusting rates, with Chair Powell's median dot-plot projection of 3.4% for end-2026 unchanged from December. [Federal Reserve press release and Powell press conference, March 18, 2026.]

The current inflationary macro environment is directly relevant to this bond's cost structure: proceeds finance street and water treatment plant improvements — capital-intensive, construction-heavy uses in an environment where the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index reached 78.3% in March 2026, the highest level since June 2022. [ISM, April 1, 2026.] The most directly relevant macro condition for this credit is the trajectory of Wisconsin state sales tax collections, which directly determines the Act 12 shared revenue distributions that represent approximately $1.6 million of Ladysmith's General Fund revenue base.

11

Stress & Downside Analysis

For the Series 2026A Notes, the operative stress framework differs from a revenue bond analysis: because the GO pledge is constitutionally unlimited, debt service cannot be impaired through the typical revenue-coverage deterioration pathway. The relevant stress is General Fund operational deterioration — specifically whether declining revenues erode the fund balance below acceptable operating levels. The MADS ($250,650) is excluded from the sensitivity analysis because it is constitutionally protected by a separate levy.

General Fund Revenue Sensitivity (Expenses Fixed at FY2024 Level)
Revenue Scenario GF Revenues Annual Result Unassigned Bal. Yr 1 Balance / Exp. Status vs. GFOA Min ($730,851)
Current (Baseline)$4,963,846+$586,297$1,938,86644.3%Well Above
−5%$4,715,654+$338,105$1,690,67438.6%Above
−10%$4,467,461+$89,912$1,442,48133.0%Above
−15%$4,219,269($158,280)$1,194,28927.3%Above
−20%$3,971,077($406,472)$946,09721.6%Above
−24.3% [GFOA Breach Point]$3,755,831($621,718)$730,85116.7%AT GFOA MINIMUM
−25%$3,722,885($654,664)$697,90516.0%⚑ Below GFOA Min
−30%$3,474,692($902,857)$449,71210.3%⚑ Below GFOA Min
Combined Stress: Revenue Decline + 5% Expense Inflation
Revenue Scenario GF Revenues Exp. (+5%) Annual Result Unassigned Bal. Yr 1 Balance / Exp. Status
Current (+5% exp. only)$4,963,846$4,596,426+$367,420$1,719,98937.4%Well Above
−5%$4,715,654$4,596,426+$119,228$1,471,79732.0%Above
−10%$4,467,461$4,596,426($128,965)$1,223,60426.6%Above
−15%$4,219,269$4,596,426($377,157)$975,41221.2%Above
−20% [GFOA Breach under combined stress]$3,971,077$4,596,426($625,349)$727,22015.8%⚑ Below GFOA Min
−25%$3,722,885$4,596,426($873,541)$479,02810.4%⚑ Below GFOA Min
[Source: FY2024 GF data from Appendix A. Starting unassigned balance $1,352,569. Projected Year 1 balance = starting balance + annual surplus/(deficit). MADS ($250,650) excluded — constitutionally protected separate levy. GFOA minimum corrected to $730,851 (16.7% × $4,377,549) per QA pass. Breach threshold corrected to 24.3% from initial 26.5% per QA arithmetic review.]
Historical Stress Anchoring
Stress MetricGreat Recession (Northern WI, 2008–2013)GFOA Breach ThresholdWould Breach Have Occurred?
EV decline (peak-to-trough) ~10–18% in comparable northern WI counties; recovery took 5–8 years 26.1% to exhaust new issuance capacity; existing debt unaffected No — existing debt service was not impaired
GF revenue decline (single year) Not determinable from available data; county settlement held throughout 24.3% (expenses flat) to reach GFOA minimum in Year 1 Likely No — no Wisconsin GO bond defaulted during Great Recession
Property tax collection rate 98–100% maintained; county settlement guarantee operated without interruption Constitutional (not a finite threshold) No — mechanism held throughout
[Sources: WISTAX report; Wisconsin Policy Forum; Door County Pulse, 2018; Wisconsin Policy Forum, 2019.]

Scenario required for bondholder impairment: For Series 2026A bondholders to experience payment impairment, the following conditions would need to occur simultaneously: (1) the unlimited property tax levy mandate would need to be overridden — legally impossible without a Wisconsin constitutional amendment; (2) the Rusk County statutory settlement guarantee would need to fail — with no Wisconsin precedent; and (3) the Wisconsin state legislature would need to repeal the §66.0602 exemption for GO debt service from levy limits — a retroactive change affecting existing bonds. No reasonable stress scenario produces all three conditions concurrently. The probability of bondholder payment impairment is, for practical analytical purposes, remote.

12

Additional Considerations

⚑ Continuing Disclosure Non-Compliance

The City failed to file required continuing disclosure submissions in 2021, 2024, and 2025 — three of the past five calendar years. [OS, p.4.] For a 20-year unrated underlying credit with no DSRF, the continuing disclosure system is the investor's primary surveillance mechanism. Repeat non-compliance suggests systemic capacity constraints consistent with the repeat audit material weaknesses. Investors should explicitly track annual EMMA filings (emma.msrb.org) as a primary monitoring activity.

⚑ Anticipated Additional Debt Issuance

The OS discloses probable additional GO borrowing within 12 months to fund SRF-related infrastructure improvements. [OS, p.3.] The financial impact is not quantified. If the additional issuance is in the $2–3 million range, total GO debt outstanding would approach $12–13 million — leaving limited unused statutory debt limit capacity at current EV levels ($13,360,715 cap). Monitor the City's 2026 capital borrowing program through EMMA filings.

⚑ Iran Conflict & Energy Market Uncertainty

The ongoing U.S.-Iran military conflict has produced oil price surges contributing to ISM Prices Paid elevation at 78.3% and inflation uncertainty that prompted the FOMC to hold rates in March 2026. [ISM, April 1, 2026; Federal Reserve, March 18, 2026.] For Ladysmith specifically, elevated energy prices represent a cost headwind for sewer treatment operations and a potential driver of higher construction materials costs that could pressure the project budget financed by these Notes.

QA Unresolved Flags

Items from the Section 7 QA pass that remain unresolved: (1) 30-year AAA MMD yield and muni/Treasury ratio as of April 2, 2026 could not be precisely confirmed from public sources; (2) City's pre-2021 equalized value history was not available, preventing issuer-specific Great Recession anchoring; (3) Mayor's April 2026 election result is unconfirmed; (4) claim that no Wisconsin GO bond defaulted during the Great Recession is commonly accepted but not formally primary-sourced.

13

Recommendation

Reason 01
Structural invulnerability of the GO pledge supports the credit at the bond-payment level

Wisconsin's constitutional unlimited tax levy, the Rusk County statutory settlement guarantee, and the §66.0602 exemption of GO debt service from levy limits collectively create a payment mechanism that has never failed in the state's history. MADS of $250,650 represents 5.05% of GF revenues and is collected by the county separately from GF operations. This structural protection would move the recommendation toward BUY if operational and governance concerns were resolved.

Reason 02
Operational conditions — sewer deterioration, anticipated debt, normalized results — warrant ongoing monitoring

The Sewer enterprise fund's ($978,081) unrestricted net position deficit and $1,350,684 interfund loan from the GF represent an unresolved structural imbalance. The anticipated additional SRF-related GO borrowing will reduce debt limit headroom. Government-wide FY2024 results are materially distorted by $5.4M in non-recurring capital grants; normalized picture shows an estimated ($1.2M) net position decline. These conditions would shift the recommendation toward PASS if sewer losses accelerate or additional borrowing exhausts debt limit capacity.

Reason 03
Governance deficiencies reduce investor confidence in financial transparency

Three consecutive audit material weaknesses combined with continuing disclosure non-compliance in three of five years create an information environment where investors cannot reliably monitor this credit between audit releases — a meaningful concern for a 20-year obligation without a DSRF. This would shift toward BUY with two consecutive years of remediation and consistent EMMA filings, or toward PASS if non-compliance continues or audit opinions deteriorate.

Monitoring Conditions
  • Track annual EMMA filings at emma.msrb.org for timely financial statements and material event notices
  • Monitor Sewer enterprise fund operating performance and the status of the anticipated additional SRF GO borrowing
  • Review audit material weakness remediation in each annual audit — two consecutive clean audits moves recommendation toward BUY
  • Watch General Fund unassigned balance as % of expenditures — decline below 20% warrants escalation to PASS review
  • Track Henry Repeating Arms employment ramp-up and its effect on equalized value and the City's economic base

Pitch Card

Credit Investment Memorandum · April 3, 2026
City of Ladysmith, Wisconsin
Recommendation
MONITOR
Series
GO Notes 2026A
$3,235,000 par
Sector
General Obligation
Unlimited Tax Pledge · Wisconsin
Maturity
March 1, 2046
Call: Sep 1, 2034 at par
Rating
S&P AA / Stable
Insured (AG) · Underlying: NR
MADS
$250,650
5.05% of GF revenues
GO Debt / EV
3.69%
Adequate range (2–5%)
GF Operating Margin
11.8%
FY2024 · 4.3% in FY2023
Days Cash (Dec 31)
23.7 days
⚑ Below 60-day benchmark
Fund Balance / Exp.
30.9%
GFOA min: 16.7% ✓
Fed Funds Rate
3.50–3.75%
Held Mar 18, 2026
10-yr Treasury (Apr 2)
4.31%
2s/10s: +43bps
10-yr AAA MMD TEY (37%)
4.90%
MMD ~3.09% · Muni/Tsy: ~72%
Top 3 Strengths
1Constitutional unlimited property tax levy — structural invulnerability to bond payment default; Rusk County settlement guarantee ensures 100% collection
2GF unassigned balance at 30.9% of expenditures — nearly double the GFOA minimum, with $621,718 of cushion above the benchmark
3Henry Repeating Arms consolidation adds 175+ jobs and converts previously tax-exempt City properties to taxable status — concrete near-term EV catalyst
Top 3 Risks
1Repeat audit material weaknesses (3 consecutive years) and continuing disclosure non-compliance (3 of 5 years) — limits ability to monitor a 20-year unrated credit
2Sewer enterprise: ($978,081) net position deficit, $1,350,684 interfund loan from GF, anticipated additional SRF borrowing — unresolved structural imbalance
3Chronic population decline (−18.9% since 2000), aging demographics, and median income at 53.9% of Wisconsin median — structural headwinds to EV and GF revenue growth
Stress Test Summary
GFOA breach (expenses flat)−24.3% revenue
GFOA breach (combined stress)−20% rev, +5% exp
Great Recession WI EV decline~10–18% peak-to-trough
Bond payment impairment riskRemote
Overall assessmentComfortable
Disclaimer: This memorandum is for internal analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All analysis is based on publicly available information, including the Official Statement dated March 23, 2026, the FY2024 audited financial statements prepared by CliftonLarsonAllen LLP, and publicly available market and economic data, and is subject to the limitations and data gaps noted herein. Arithmetic has been independently verified through a QA pass; any remaining errors are noted as unresolved flags. The GFOA minimum threshold has been corrected to $730,851 (16.7% × $4,377,549) and the GF fund balance GFOA breach threshold has been corrected to 24.3% per the Section 7 QA review. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The underlying credit is not rated by any nationally recognized statistical rating organization; the S&P AA rating applies to the insured bonds only and reflects the creditworthiness of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp., not the City of Ladysmith. This analysis is current as of April 3, 2026, and is subject to change as new information becomes available.